Points Added Main Page

Points Added's Accuracy in the NCAA Tournament

Within only a small margin of error, 
Points Added reflects actual scoring margins. 

Consider the following....


The 2002 NBA Finals
  Actual Result PA Result Adjusted PA Result
(Removes Double-Counting)*
Game 1 Lakers by 5 Lakers by 9 Lakers by 5
Game 2 Lakers by 23 Lakers by 22 Lakers by 21
Game 3 Lakers by 3 Lakers by 1 Lakers by 8
Game 4 Lakers by 6 Lakers by 10 Lakers by 7
Success in correctly 
indicating winner
N/A 4-0 (100%) 4-0 (100%)
Average Pts/G off 
from actual margin
N/A 2.75  2.0
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 2 pts
N/A 2-2 (50%) 3-1 (75%)
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 4 pts
N/A 4-0 (100%) 3-1 (75%)
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 6 pts
N/A 4-0 (100%) 4-0 (100%)

*Adjusted PA removes the double-counting that unavoidably results from steals (which also count as turnovers), blocks (which also count as missed field goals), and assists (which also count as made field goals); and it also includes team rebounds (rebounds not credited to a specific player).

2002 NBA Finals Summary:
  • PA correctly indicated the winner in all 4 games 
  • PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 4 points in every game
  • On average, PA indicated the actual scoring margin within less than 3 points per game
  • On average, Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 2 points per game


 
The 2001 NBA Finals
  Actual Result PA Result Adjusted PA Result
(Removes Double-Counting)*
Game 1 76ers by 6 76ers by 2 76ers by 6
Game 2 Lakers by 9 Lakers by 18 Lakers by 11
Game 3 Lakers by 5 Lakers by 12 Lakers by 8
Game 4 Lakers by 14 Lakers by 18 Lakers by 14
Game 5 Lakers by 12 Lakers by 15 Lakers by 13
Success in correctly 
indicating winner
N/A 5-0 (100%) 5-0 (100%)
Average Pts/G off 
from actual margin
N/A 5.4 1.2
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 2 pts
N/A 0-5 (0%) 4-1 (80%)
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 4 pts
N/A 3-2 (60%) 5-0 (100%)
Success in indicating
actual margin w/i 6 pts
N/A 3-2 (60%) 5-0 (100%)

*Adjusted PA removes the double-counting that unavoidably results from steals (which also count as turnovers), blocks (which also count as missed field goals), and assists (which also count as made field goals); and it also includes team rebounds (rebounds not credited to a specific player).

2001 NBA Finals Summary:
  • PA correctly indicated the winner in all 5 games 
  • On average, PA indicated the actual scoring margin within less than 6 points per game 
  • Adjusted PA indicated the actual margin within 3 points in every game and pegged it exactly in 2 games
  • On average, Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 1.2 points per game

To examine Points Added's accuracy another way, 
note the similarity between the following two lists:

2001-02 NBA Regular Season
Actual 
Ranking 
in Scoring 
Margin
Ranking in Scoring Margin As Indicated by Adjusted PA*
1 SAC 1 LAL
2 LAL 2 SAC
3 SA 3 SA
4 DAL 4 DAL
5 NJ 5 NJ
6 MIN 6 MIN
7 SEA 7 SEA
8 POR 8 POR
9 BOS 9 BOS
10 DET 10 DET
11 PHI 11 ORL
12 ORL 12 PHI
13 CHA 13 CHA
14 UTA 14 UTA
15 IND 15 MIL
16 MIL 16 IND
17 TOR 17 TOR
18 LAC 18 PHO
19 PHO 19 LAC
20 WAS 20 MIA
21 MIA 21 WAS
22 CLE 22 CLE
23 NY 23 NY
24 ATL 24 ATL
25 HOU 25 HOU
26 GS 26 GS
27 DEN 27 DEN
28 MEM 28 MEM
29 CHI 29 CHI
  • Each team's ranking in scoring margin is essentially identical to its ranking in scoring margin as indicated by Adjusted PA.  No team's place in one list is more than one spot different than in the other, and most teams (19 of 29) are in exactly the same spot in each list.

Other 2001-02 NBA Regular Season Data:
  • The average difference between teams' actual scoring margins (over 82 games) and their scoring margins as indicated by Points Added was less than 2 points (1.7 points) per team. 
  • The average difference between teams' actual scoring margins (over 82 games) and their scoring margins as indicated by Adjusted Points Added was less than half a point (0.3 points) per team. 


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